Olly and the Guru, Ep. 3 - Wi-What?
Let’s recap real quick before jumping into this next continuation of Olly and the Guru, shall we? Thus far, we’ve touched on the notion that within a few years, the term "downloading" will be equivalent to "streaming." As bandwidth and wireless coverage increases, you won’t be able to tell a difference. This is where both Olly and I feel that 3G (and future tech like WiMax) has such potential, not simply making our internet faster, but adding to the multimedia capabilites of our devices.
In the 2nd episode, we connected the dots to realize that T-mobile’s 3G offering might trump the others, due to their testing of UMA and their huge HotSpot coverage across nation. This brings us to the end of episode 2, where I (The Guru) asked, "you know what would be crazy…..?"
**Reminder** Olly’s statements are in italics, The Guru’s are in the gray.
4:28:51 PM: what if in the next 3-5 years,
Sprint and T-mobile are on top?
4:28:55 PM: GSM and
CDMA are gone — eventually, MoIP is going to be standard, not the weird quirk
4:29:04 PM: EXACTLY
4:29:25 PM: you’ll get internet into your
home like you do your electricity
4:29:36 PM: and you won’t care about
features, you just want speed and guarantee of service
4:29:50 PM: cause you’re going to plug your
UMA router into it anyways
4:29:44 PM: Sprint/Nextel
is more dangerous than anyone gives them credit for in my opinion…
4:30:11 PM: specially with their WiMax
coming soon
4:30:24 PM: I
dismissed UMA at first, but after being a beta tester of it? A seamless MoIP
handoff between UMA, WiMAX and 3G on the backend is the future
4:30:17 PM: you know what’s funny?
4:30:43 PM: whats
that?
4:31:24 PM: sometime last year I was
reading Business 2.0 and they had a huge article about how in the future, the
wireless "flavor" won’t matter, your devices will all talk to each
other across whatever wireless is available, from bluetooth to WiFi to WiMax to
cellular and whatever else
4:31:43 PM: ABSOLUTELY!
4:31:47 PM: like a cable made of twisted up
copper, brass, steel, lead, etc
4:31:57 PM: SOMEHOW, something’s going
through on something
4:32:05 PM: in which case the content
providers are the winners.
4:32:08 PM: I’ve
always thought that was the case — because one thing is always true in the
end: the average consumer doesn’t give a
flying flip as long as it works
4:32:14 PM: i’ve said that for a long long
time; content is king
4:35:20 PM: 1.)
specific technology is becoming irrellevant
4:35:27 PM: 2.)
content is where it’s at
4:35:37 PM: 3.)
bandwidth, in whatever form, is where it’s at also
4:35:50 PM: 4.) MoIP
will become the standard (as it is in home phone service this very minute)
4:35:42 PM: yes absolutely
4:35:51 PM: bandwidth bandwidth bandwidth
4:36:01 PM: DUDE YOU KNOW WHAT I JUST
REALIZE
4:36:08 PM: check out this connection
UK is big on 4:36:17 PM: T-mobile
Nokias, huh?
4:36:27 PM: yep
USA has WiFi 4:36:38 PM: T-mobile
out the wazoo
4:36:49 PM: yep
4:36:58 PM: Nokia said at CES that WiFi
will become a standard on their high-end phones
4:37:08 PM: yeppers…
which means….
4:37:15 PM: and Nokia supplied the test
unit in the UMA trials
4:37:20 PM: and is a big game player in UMA
4:37:30 PM: actually Samsung
was also a test unit for UMA
4:37:47 PM: so maybe the reason they’re not
bothering too much with US 3G is because they don’t think they’ll need to soon
4:37:57 PM: that’s it
right there
4:38:01 PM: maybe they’re skipping 3G
4:38:08 PM: they’re building Sprint’s WiMax
network
4:38:22 PM: and T-mobile’s 3G network (to
ensure good UMA handoffs?)
4:38:38 PM: and I don’t think Qualcomm
holds patents on WiFi
4:38:41 PM: which is a big factor
4:39:26 PM: do you know if Nokia uses
Broadcom chips?
4:39:39 PM: http://www.engadgetmobile.com/2007/02/08/bluetooth-wifi-and-fm-on-a-single-chip-oh-my/
4:39:40 PM: yep, you
nailed it… as I said, CDMA and GSM are out the window… imagine
Sprint/T-Mobile/Netel — push to talk over iDen — and seamless handoffs
between UMA enabled handsets through the millions of freakin’ T-Mobile hotspots
and Sprint’s WiMax network
4:39:58 PM: plus, Bluetooth
2.0 means UMA over Bluetooth is possible too because 2.0 offers enough room for
simultaneous data/voice over BT
4:40:33 PM: so maybe, just maybe, Nokia
truly doesn’t care if it gets a 3G phone out on Cingular
4:44:11 PM: consider
this — HSDPA has a theoretical maximum of what, 12mbps? Something like that?
4:44:45 PM: Think of
what WiMax’s is theoretically, and think of where 802.11n is right now…
combine those two, think of the two companies that have focused on them, and
there you go 
4:45:14 PM: 802.11n is
118mbps I think
4:45:18 PM: holy crap
4:45:30 PM: WiMax is
somewhere up there too… Sprint and T-Mo are the only companies focused on
that kind of tech
4:46:05 PM: an upgrade
from 802.11b (what T-Mo’s hotspots use now) to 802.11n would be a drop in the
bucket … probably around 300 bucks per Starbucks
4:46:11 PM: wow
4:46:23 PM: yep, plus 802.11n
extends the range by alot
4:46:26 PM: yeah
4:46:31 PM: to be the
perfect handoff mechanism to WiMAX
USA haven’t focused on getting phones out NOW is because they’ve got killers in the 4:48:03 PM: maybe the reason Nokia and
T-mobile
box
4:49:51 PM: that’s the
thing… UMA right now is just a stopgap… the real handoff comes first with
UMA to 3G… then later UMA to WiMAX (either T-Mo’s own or a roaming agreement
with Sprint… probably both)
4:49:59 PM: so NOkia
is focused on that
4:50:03 PM: UMA is kinda like GAIT
4:50:08 PM: exactly!
4:50:15 PM: interesting
4:52:08 PM: ok, one
more thought then I really have to go… who’s been rumored to be building the
biggest free/ad supported WiFi network in the world right here in the U.S. –
and is testing it in San Francisco right now… and is also the worlds most
well known content provider
4:52:19 PM: Google…
Stay tuned next week for the final chapter and the ultimate "WHOA!"
Random Posts
Olly and The Guru, Episode 2
Here’s this week’s episode of Olly and The Guru. As you recall, this is nothing more than a conversation between Ollywompus and myself, that ended up being really stimulating, and personally I think it’s a good theory. I’ve broken it up into parts, so you have to keep reading every Friday, and at the end you’ll hopefully have the same "wow" moment that we both had.
Also, I welcome any commentary you guys might have. That’s what the comments section is all about. So, without further ado, Olly and The Guru…..
I’ve put Olly’s comments in italics, mine are in regular font. I think it’s easier to read if I leave it in this conversational format, rather than trying to explain it like I’m writing a term paper.
4:15:04 PM: http://money.cnn.com/blogs/browser/2007/02/apples-ulterior-motive-for-unlocking.html
- just read this fascinating article on the recent Jobs’ calling out of DRM
4:15:20 PM: one thing really stuck out, and is something that the S60
browser blog touched on a while back
4:15:30 PM: that eventually, the idea of "downloadiing" something
will be moot
4:15:37 PM: yeah, i’ve been following it.. you see the RIAA’s asinine
response?
4:15:47 PM: there will be no noticable difference between
"downloading" and "streaming"
4:15:57 PM: specifically with the announcements of FP2
4:16:12 PM: i’ve always thought that… as bandwidth grows, remote storage
makes more sense
4:16:20 PM: especially with the ubiquity of net access
4:16:44 PM: it’s exactly what happened in the server space a few years back…
everyone runs remote NAS systems now, because it’s too risky to have data
housed locally
4:17:32 PM: my company backs up our ENTIRE SERVER FARM nightly to a remote
data house…
4:17:42 PM: huge amounts over a few t3 lines
4:17:45 PM: it’s fascinating, but makes you wonder back to my personal
favorite, US 3G, or lack thereof
4:18:04 PM: yep
4:18:21 PM: that is where 3G becomes the key… it’s not in RSS reading or net
surfing… it’s in multimedia applications
4:18:51 PM: Rhapsody is the perfect model for a future music service
4:18:58 PM: everything in the catalog on demand
4:19:02 PM: except for that it’s Real
4:19:06 PM: i HATE Real
4:19:06 PM: haha true
4:19:08 PM: me too
4:19:10 PM: but you get the point
4:19:26 PM: what’s even BETTER is that Nokia bought Loudeye last year,
didn’t they?
4:19:41 PM: could they be holding out for FP2, playing while
downloading……
4:19:41 PM: yep
4:20:07 PM: I feel a six pack and my laptop coming on tonite…..
4:20:43 PM: I think that Nokia and SE are going to lead the way by going from
simple equipment manufacturers to content providers as well… throw in a few
key service provider deals and it’s locked… "Welcome to Loudeye,
courtesy of Nokia and T-Mobile"
4:21:18 PM: which makes you wonder more, thinking on to my distribution
suggestions
Europe 4:21:30 PM: Especially since Nokia just inked a deal to get more T-Mobile
services built into S60 devices in
(read AAS today?)
4:21:42 PM: i didn’t see that on my feed
Europe 4:22:07 PM: pretty sure it was AAS — I was stoked until I realized it was
T-Mobile in
4:22:18 PM: lol.
4:22:32 PM: well and that’s one more thing that the iPhone is shaking up in
the industry
4:22:41 PM: http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/4877_T-Mobile_and_S60_team_up.php
4:22:48 PM: yep @ iphone
4:22:50 PM: a hands-off rule
4:22:55 PM: remember there’s no branding on it
4:22:59 PM: or in it
4:23:24 PM: and the iphone has it’s own support within Cingular/ATT
4:23:26 PM: I think maybe the iPhone will be the first step towards pushing
the carriers the way of the home phone company
4:23:38 PM: commodity
4:23:43 PM: and the big ones won’t care anymore
4:23:48 PM: Verizon is part of Verizon Landlines
4:23:54 PM: Cingular/ATT is covered
4:24:22 PM: You know what I see (off the wall, you’ll laugh)… Sprint and
T-Mo becoming a single company at some point
4:24:22 PM: and all those rumors of service with the iPhone, what if that’s
the first phone to be sold with a service discount, rather than a phone
discount.
4:24:35 PM: I’ve thought about that, but they’re too fragmented
4:24:43 PM: look at the hell Sprint/Nextel have gone through
UK USA 4:25:07 PM: I’m surprised that T-mobile
doesn’t do more with T-mobile
4:25:15 PM: sink some dough into it, get some devices
4:25:16 PM: I agree, and the technological hurdles are huge — but it’s live
or die time in the next few years..
4:25:27 PM: lol, it’s always "live or die"
T-Mobile USA 4:25:44 PM: I think that T-Mobile AG is going to start doing so —
is their _single_ most profitable division
4:25:51 PM: really?
4:26:04 PM: once they get 3G up and running, it’ll be interesting
4:26:23 PM: i think, sadly, that Cingular is inching closer to Verizon, as
well
4:26:32 PM: now that they’re back under mama’s wing
4:26:48 PM: for a while, they were like the kid with divorced parents that
does pretty much whatever it wants
4:26:55 PM: cause it’s never fully under control of either
4:27:23 PM: you know what else I think?
4:27:41 PM: I have a feeling that T-Mo’s 3G is going to do something
interesting to the market — in terms of coverage, the gap between Cingy and
T-Mo is slowly lessening — plus T-Mo can do a clean (albeit delayed) 3G
rollout, and skip straight to HSDPA…. I think that all of a sudden, Cingy and
VZW are going to be faced with the little Pink brat again, undercutting their
prices, plus bundling the largest pay wifi service in the country
4:28:01 PM: I think the first company to offer up a naked data SIM will bank
4:28:14 PM: I agree completely
4:28:14 PM: yeah and with UMA, T-mobile is all of a sudden an equal in terms
of coverage
4:28:29 PM: and I think that in the end, as data progresses, "he with the
most bandwidth wins"
4:28:40 PM: you know what’d be crazy?
Great read boys!!! Keep it up