Olly & The Guru, Ep. 5 - Conspiracy Theory
So we skipped a week, and then stuff started happening. This time I don’t have an IM conversation to post, this is more of a collaboration of Olly, Me, and my buddy Dartagnion, who pointed this connection out. It aligns somewhat with the ideas set forth by the previous episodes, which you can catch up on here. It’s a long, but good read, so be prepared.
To set the stage, it’s important that you know where all this is coming from. First and foremost, for those that scare easily, I want to point out this award that Nokia recently received. So we know that Nokia knows how to keep ads tastefully out of the way. That’s important. The next important little tidbit was announced this past week. In a Press Release on Tuesday, March 6th, Nokia announced 2 new mobile ad delivery services….
The first ad service is simply called Nokia Ad Service. It is "a fully managed service for advertisers to conduct targeted advertising
on mobile services and applications. Nokia Ad Service consists of a
group of mobile publishers forming a mobile ad network and a platform
to deploy, manage and optimize mobile advertising campaigns." Basically it’s the backbone, offering advertisers a one-stop shop for mobile advertising.
The second service is called Nokia Ad Connector. This is the active service part of the deal, offering a mix of text, visual, and audio ads in a contextual way to the consumer. Basically with Nokia Ad Connector, an advertiser can give Nokia their message in multiple formats, and Ad Connector will deliver that to consumers, choosing the medium based on what the user is doing at the time.
So now Nokia can handle the whole thing, top to bottom, as well as actually deliver the ads - intelligently - to the consumer. Sounds pretty good, right?
The next part takes that, applies the earlier Olly and the Guru conversations, and brews them all together in Olly’s head:
Prediction: Within the next
few years, you will see a phone released that has access to a WiMax
network, as well as 1000’s of WiFi Hotspots. This phone will
be ad supported, meaning the cost to the consumer will be relatively
low. Below you’ll see my diagram of how I think this might work,
as well as a couple of scenarios involving some (or all) of the various
companies. 
Scenario 1: Nokia makes
a power play vs Google in the mobile ad space. Qualcomm provides
the Network Layer Hardware (WiMax), Sprint provides the Service (it’s
WiMax network), Nokia provides the handset AND provides the mobile content.
Scenario 2: Google Leverages
WiFi for Ad-Supported Mobile. T-Mobile provides the Network
(through it’s HotSpot network), using UMA and Ad-Supported Content,
the handset is subsidized… this handset would most likely be provided
by Nokia or Samsung (who currently provide UMA handsets to T-Mobile
USA).
Scenario 3: Everyone jumps
into the Ad-Supported Mobile Fray: You get a phone, made by
Nokia, or Samsung through either your local Sprint or T-Mobile store.
This handset has ad-supported content on it, provided by Google and
Nokia. This lowers the cost of both the handset itself, and the
data services that you pay for. This handset connects to the net/voice
through a combination of Sprint’s WiMax network and T-Mobile’s Hotspot
Locations (UMA). Qualcomm, Motorola and Intel battle it out to
provide the network hardware, or work together as a consortium to do
so.
To further encourage these thoughts, note the "Google Phone" rumor/screenshots that surfaced a few days ago:
Sources of our conspiracy theories:
Nokia Announces Ad-Supported
Content, http://publications.mediapost
Nokia and Google Ad-Supported
Content, Internet Tablet (N800), http://www.thefinalmile.net
Nokia and Intel for Mobile
WiMax, http://www.infoworld.com
Motorola Wimax, http://www.wimax-industry.com
Nokia and Qualcomm Play Nice
WiMax, http://www.engadgetmobile.com
Nokia Internet Tablet With
WiMax, Ari Jaaksi, http://jaaksi.blogspot.com
Sprint and Intel, Mobile WiMax, http://www.itnews.com.au
Samsung Mobile WiMax, http://www.samsung.com/Products
Qualcomm vs Intel WiMax, http://gigaom.com/2006/08/24
T-Mobile UMA Launch, http://www.engadget.com/2006
T-Mobile and Samsung UMA, http://www.mobiletracker.net
Samsung Flaunts WiMax Phone, http://www.cellphonebeat.com
I just realized that I should have added Motorola at the Network Hardware Layer level, along with Qualcomm and Intel (since that’s where their WiMax focus is, on the network side of things), but you get the gist… that’s what happens when I bust out random diagrams at work!
-olly