Looking Forward to 2008
Ah, it MUST be the end of the year, as all across the internet bloggers are presenting readers with their predictions for things to come the next year. I won’t attempt it, personally, but I did want to share some thoughts. I had a conversation today and was asked what I thought about a few things, and decided later that I wanted to share this conversation with you. I won’t quote directly, but here’s the questions, and my thoughts. I’m looking forward to hearing your comments on them, as well.
1. What would you say was the most revolutionary product in 2007? 100% honesty, it’s a dead tie for the iPhone and the Nokia N95. The iPhone, as has been discussed endlessly, is a disrupter, and prompted others to rethink their UI, as well as the carrier - manufacturer relationship. It’s certainly revolutionary in the things that it has brought on the industry. The N95, however, was revolutionary in that it brought several new features to the table. The first Feature Pack 1 device to hit the market (I believe), it also brought the first 5 megapixel camera to the general market, as well as built-in GPS and TV-Out. Obviously those features have been on other phones, but the N95 was the first to bring them to the mass market. I think that’s huge, as we’re now seeing those features available on other handsets.
2. What will be the most exciting part of 2008? I think what’s going to be fascinating is not only seeing what other companies do in response to the iPhone and Apple, but also what Apple does in response to everyone else. Obviously there’ll be more updates to the iPhone, and the SDK soon, but how will they handle all of that? Will the ‘next’ iPhone be a HUGE separation from the first, or merely an update (i.e. increasing what’s essentially the same feature set)? How will the incumbents in this industry respond?
3. What about the other players besides Apple and Nokia? I think Sony Ericsson is at a crucial point. Given Sony’s history and experience in music and imaging, you’d think they’d be DOMINATING in those areas. However, while the camera modules and music features might be top-notch, the rest of the phone typically drags it down. The lack of 3.5mm jacks, lack of US 3G handsets, tri-band smartphones, etc. They’re poised to really make headway, but seem to fumble alot, in my opinion. I don’t know if they’ll be able to make an improvement in 2008, but we’ll see.
LG has had some neat new handsets, with the Viewty, Prada, and others, but they’re still bottom of the barrel in the global marketshare race. They need to take advantage of something. They’re S60 licensees, but yet have only made a few handsets. I’d like to see more LG S60 handsets, personally. The competition would really give Nokia a spur to increase build quality and other issues plaguing their S60 units, and it would be neat to have a fresh company in there in terms of handset form factors and that sort of thing. Also, with S60 having the clear leadership in global smartphone percentage, it could really help LG in the end.
Motorola needs to just start over. They’ve milked the RAZR line as much as possible, and have stagnated, as we all know. There’s not been a really exciting Motorola handset in a long, long while. They’re all the same 2 megapixel number in a new shell. I’d like to see them spice it up a bit. Hopefully with UIQ and the new Kodak partnership, they can come out with something new and fresh.
Samsung has been doing alot better than before, but their low- and mid-level handsets need some serious work. I’d also like to see them using their S60 license more in 2008, for the same reasons as LG. Competition is always good for consumers, and S60 is a powerful brand, globally.
4. What about Nokia? I want to see Nokia be creative in 2008. I want them out of the box. I want to see each handset having something really new and innovative. Doesn’t have to be huge, but something little. And let’s move these existing innovations across the product portfolio. Accelerometers can’t be too expensive, and have no impact on the outer shell of a handset, so let’s see those in EVERYTHING. They’re fun. More things like the Naviwheel (only improved) and Xenon flash. Little things that make a big splash. I also want to see some new form factors. They’ve been on a patent spree lately, I want to see some of those come to fruition. And more US 3G handsets is a must.
I’d also like to see the Internet Tablet division get more attention. In the past 5 months I’ve been really disgusted with how the Internet Tablet team has handled several things, such as the N810 launch, the Developers Discount Code (which still isn’t redeemable yet), and the OS2008 update (broken repositories, dead-slow image servers, etc). Let’s get this part up to snuff so that as consumers start picking this thing up, they’re not disgusted and turned off.
S40 has come a LONG way in everything other than features. We’ve gotten only a couple with better than 2 megapixel cameras, or with WiFi or GPS. Let’s see these features trickle down to the mid-level consumers. I’d also like to see the home screen cleaned up a bit, those fonts KILL me.
5. I’m glad to hear that Windows Mobile is working on becoming more user-friendly, specifically for consumers. However, I think that whatever they do will be too late, personally. With the iPhone, Nokia, and RIM’s Blackberry’s getting more and more user-friendly to the consumer, I think Windows Mobile is going to lose alot of marketshare fast.
6. Android is, in my opinion, going to be a non-event. It will be a niche, like Blyk Mobile. There’s serious few people who realistically want ads all over their handsets, and I don’t think it’ll take off like people seem to think. Blyk is doing well because they openly admit that there is a niche, and even advertise that niche as an ‘exclusive’ club. They’re not trying to fool themselves into thinking they’ll take over the world.
So that’s it. I think 2008 is going to be a fantastically fun year in the mobile industry and I’m really pumped to be here to help you keep track of it all. Thanks so much for reading throughout 2007, and we’ll see you next year!
I think the first FP1 was the 6290…ugly but functional.
Happy New Year to you too Ricky, and here’s to a great 2008, in all aspects!
An interesting battle will be the one between Nokia’s 4th step in the internet tablet arena, (with the hardwear emulating touch screen keyboard, ever slicker UI, more apps etc.) AND the rumored Apple return to Newton. Apple will most likely win in UI and features, but will also be dragged down by probably heavy price tag.
To me it seems Nokia is well positioned, but they do need to deliver on OVI and its parts , TS on S60 (at least one device must come out and not be competely bugged), and continued efforts on E series and US market.
Finally, we must remember that the average price of Nokia phones is less than 100 Euros = the low end must keep ahead of the competition and keep margins high in the process.
Happy New year to you to Ricky!
I do think that the N95 and Iphone where the products of the year, but I think they are nothing compared to a S60 touch UI device with QWERTY, touch and a second numeric/alpha keyboard.
Devin, hmm.. are you referring to something you have actually seen in the labs?